A powerful El Niño weather event could push nearly 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, raising the global total to 274 million, according to a new warning from the World Food Programme (WFP).
The UN agency said there is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño, with Pacific Ocean temperatures reaching their highest levels since at least 1982. If forecasts hold, it could become the strongest El Niño event since 1950.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that disrupts global weather, often bringing drought to Southern Africa, delayed monsoons in Asia, and extreme rainfall and flooding in other regions.
“These are events that have historically triggered large-scale hunger,” said Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service.
According to the WFP, the number of people facing crisis-level hunger or worse could rise by 22% across 45 vulnerable countries. Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, with food insecurity projected to increase by 83% and 75%, respectively.
The report also warns that East Africa, the Sahel, South Asia and Southeast Asia could face drought, erratic monsoon rains and flooding, threatening agricultural production and food supplies.
Although global food markets remain relatively stable after strong harvests in 2025, the WFP cautioned that conflicts in the Middle East and climate-related crop losses could push food prices higher in affected regions.
The agency also expressed concern over funding cuts from major donors, which have reduced food security monitoring and made it more difficult to detect emerging hunger crises.
To reduce the impact, the WFP urged governments and humanitarian agencies to act early. The organization has already expanded anticipatory action programmes in 18 countries, providing cash assistance and other support to more than 1.3 million people this year before extreme weather strikes.